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Peak Oil means that a “peak” in oil production has been reached; that is to say, the production rate achieved at "peak" is higher than the rate at any point in the future. "Barrels per day" is the unit generally used to measure the rate of production.
Once an oil field “peaks,” the oil production rate declines. The first half of the available oil in the field is the easiest to recover; the remaining half is harder - and more costly - to extract, even with improved technologies. This was seen in the 1970s when U.S. oil production peaked: despite the best technologies and additional drilling, U.S. production has declined ever since, causing an increase in our dependence on foreign oil.
[source:
US Energy Information Administration]
Oil production can peak in a field, a nation or the world as a whole: global discoveries of productive oil fields have been falling off since the 1960s (see verticle grey bars, in the following graph). In each year since 1981, global oil discoveries have been smaller than the amount used that year. Add to this the rising demand for oil as nations begin to industrialize their economies, and it becomes evident that production cannot continue to keep up with demand. These factors contribute to the high price of oil today.
Regular
World Oil Reserves, as computed from Colin Campbell's "Growing
Gap" graph.
Dark grey line represents consumption.
[Data source: Exxon-Mobil backdated to year of discovery.]
Dark grey line represents consumption.
[Data source: Exxon-Mobil backdated to year of discovery.]
Peak Oil does not mean that oil is about to run out; only that it is becoming harder - more expensive and energy-intensive - to discover, extract, produce and refine. Coupled with rising demand, this makes oil an increasingly costly commodity.
Peak Oil is not a passing phenomenon; it is the inevitable result of the extraction and consumption of a non-renewable resource. Peak Oil means that oil production is about to go into decline; we will have to find other ways to meet - and curb - our energy needs.
The following selected articles and reports offer further information about the nature and consequences of Peak Oil.
Peak
Oil Primer,
from Energy Bulletin.
Hirsch Report to US Dept. of Energy, Executive Summary, February 2005
National Petroleum Council, “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy,” Executive Summary, July 2007
Martin Payne, “Peak Oil – Why it’s So Difficult to Explain/Understand”, January 2008
Peak Oil FAQs, courtesy of Portland Peak Oil.
Hirsch Report to US Dept. of Energy, Executive Summary, February 2005
National Petroleum Council, “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy,” Executive Summary, July 2007
Martin Payne, “Peak Oil – Why it’s So Difficult to Explain/Understand”, January 2008
Peak Oil FAQs, courtesy of Portland Peak Oil.
The Vermont Peak Oil Report
A Vermont Peak Oil Report is being prepared by several members of the Vermont Peak Oil Network. This report describes both current and anticipated declines in world petroleum production capacity, describes the impacts those declines are likely to have on Vermont’s economy and infrastructure, and explains how Vermont can benefit by proactively acting to mitigate the severity of those impacts.