VPON-what's new

The most important political office is that of the private citizen.
- Louis D. Brandeis

Vermont Legislators pass S.209 -- Energy Efficiency and Affordability!!
The Vermont House and Senate have passed a strong version of last year's energy bill [House (136-2) and Senate (27-3)]; the bill is expected to be signed by the Governor. Thank your Representatives and Senators for a job well done!

VPIRG and VNRC remind us that next up, the Legislature is considering bill S.350 – a bill that will complement the efficiency and renewable elements in S.209. Taking another important step forward, S.350:
    1) Creates a mandatory greenhouse gas registry to identify the sources of Vermont’s emissions. This is a crucial first step in crafting an effective response to climate change because if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.
    2) Expands the reach of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative’s cap-and-trade program beyond electric to other forms of fossil fuel and transportation.
    3) Begins to tackle the transportation component of Vermont’s energy consumption by setting goals that will expand Vermonters’ use of public transportation and increase the viability of biking and walking where we need to go.

Another important component of S.350 is the establishment of an entity charged with, among other things, prioritizing the best greenhouse gas reducing strategies and making recommendations for turning those good ideas into reality. The ‘Vermont Resources Trust’ as it’s called would essentially serve as a bridge to advance the recommendations coming out of the Governor’s Climate Change Commission. It would help identify barriers to implementing policy recommendations, suggestions for overcoming them and potential funding sources to make them happen.

S.350 passed out of the Senate Natural Resources Committee this week and now makes its way to the Senate Finance Committee. Letting your lawmakers know that other significant efforts like S.350 and beyond are important to Vermont’s energy future and embracing the state’s part in addressing the global warming challenge. [This text from the VNRC mailing.]

An Open Letter to Peter Welch
by Moshe Braner [archived 2008-Feb-28 on the Community Pages]
Dear Congressman Welch:

I just heard a radio interview with congressman Murphy, the only Iraq war veteran in congress, and a democrat who has stood up to Bush. He's up against a tough re-election in a traditionally Republican district, much tougher than your coming re-election will be in Vermont. And he said: "I will work as hard as I can, but stick to my views." He said his father told him: "either you stand for something, or you'll fall for anything."

Which is why I am writing. When I heard that you joined the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus I was glad that you "got it", and expected some action on this matter which will soon become known as our main challenge. There is no "solution" to peak oil, in the sense of continuing our current wasteful lifestyles. The American way of life is indeed not negotiable - but not in the sense that Cheney meant. The era of the single occupancy vehicle is closing, and the Ponzi scheme of "economic growth" has run its course. The attempt to turn our food crops into fuel has already caused a huge rise in food prices (and, soon, famine) worldwide, but cannot replace more than a token portion of our greedy demand for ever-more oil.

The most important thing that a politician can do about Peak Oil is to talk openly about the real situation and the need for cultural change. Thus I have been repeatedly and deeply disappointed with your public statements related to energy issues. The latest one, for example, proposed a gimmick (delay in filling the SPR) instead of the sorely-needed actual reduction in the burning of oil, and for the sole purpose of a minor and temporary reduction in the price of fuel. What is needed is exactly the opposite: consistently higher prices, coupled with open discussion of the finiteness of oil. That is what is needed to affect a cultural shift towards accepting the inevitable lower-energy way of life.

Oil prices will keep rising in any case, but in a volatile manner. Also, the money will flow to the oil-producing countries and corporations. A proactive government effort to significantly tax fossil fuels would clarify the price signal, and siphon some of the money to the public coffers, where it theoretically can be used for appropriate responses to Peak Oil, starting with a massive investment in public transit, especially electricity-powered commuter rail, and in home insulation. Such a policy has worked very well in Europe, while the US is falling further behind into oil dependency.

The only policy potentially better than higher fuel taxes is the rationing of fuel. And I believe we will get to that, but too late to save this country from massive misery due to the lack of preparation for oil (and gas) scarcity. The only path to "energy independence" is to use less.

Alas all I hear from you is pandering to the cheap-gas wishes of those who would rather not be bothered with facts. Suppose you get re-elected, and then the oil-soaked economy collapses without warning - what will you say then? What will you say to our children, who will inherit a world stripped of its natural resources (and tolerable climate)? Leaders are supposed to be in the front, not the rear, of the crowd.

Sincerely,
Moshe Braner, Essex, VT

The Weiss Reports Return: VT Energy-Related Legislative Activities
submitted by Vermont Citizen Thomas Weiss
Thomas Weiss' legislative updates have returned for the 2008 VT Legislative Session. Weiss' updates feature announcements of hearings and activities as well as reports on energy and climate change hearings, initiatives and proposals in the Vermont Legislature. Please go to this section of the VPON Community Pages for the most recent announcements and reports, as well as the report archives. You may want to bookmark that page; Weiss updates weekly during the legislative session. Thank you, Thomas.

“The problem is that it is an entirely new situation for never before has a resource as critical as oil begun to decline without sight of a better substitute. Oil is central to the modern way of life, so the consequences of its decline are immense. It is therefore difficult for people to accept and react.”
- Petroleum geologist Colin Campbell, one of the founders of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)

With Head, Heart and Hands: A Celebration and Deepening of Vermont’s Peak Oil Activism
A Report on the February 3rd VPON Retreat
by Annie Dunn Watson
Judging from the turn-out for VPON’s first statewide Peak Oil Activists’ Retreat (100% of those registered, plus one!), there appears to be strong interest in meeting fellow peak oil-aware individuals and strengthening skills to communicate about the issues. The day was structured around an in-depth workshop presented by Phil Rice and Beth Sawin from The Sustainability Institute, Hartland, VT, on “Four Capacities for Effective Leadership on Peak Oil.” Although the workshop was modeled after their work with Climate Change activists, its redesign for peak oil activists succeeded in offering many relevant insights. Some of those are discussed, below.

At the Lunchtime Networking Café, participants met with colleagues working on similar interests to share ideas, resources and strategies. Late afternoon featured an upbeat presentation by Dona Bate, President and owner of dbate speaking, in which she gave tips for effective presentation styles. Activist Erin Russell-Story shared research on the value of positive messaging to round out the latter part of the day. After the event, a contingent of the VPON Politically Inclined adjourned to a local establishment to reflect and strategize on their evolving agenda as the newly-formed Vermont Peak Oil Action Group.

But what did we accomplish? How any one of us might answer that question depends on what our goals were upon arriving. The important “take aways” for many sound exactly like what you’d expect to be important to activists working on an unpopular cause:

    * camaraderie and support
    * seeing that downward spirals can become upward ones
    * deeper understanding of despair and empowerment
    * learning to speak to others’ needs, rather than one’s own wants
    * not needing to have all the answers -- sometimes, we can only plant seeds
    * have a vision/path, and also leave room for new visions/paths to emerge
    * ask others to help
    * systems change through building networks
    * valuable input on how to work with one’s own vision more skillfully
    * work with people of like mind to create a new reality
    * look for allies - refuge in alliances
    * when spokespeople disappear, it gets harder -- each of us must be the carriers of the change
    * “viral” is the way things move
    * “Do not block your power with your current understanding” (Paul Krafel)

There are some juicy tidbits here for the reader, to be sure. For instance, how does a downward spiral become an upward one? Downward spirals (discouragement, dispair) contain within them the seeds for what is needed to reverse the spiral’s direction; often, it is only a tiny shift that is necessary to ignite the change. According to Rice and Sawin, it often happens through the process of networking: relationships among kindred spirits generate ideas. These are later passed along by word of mouth. Success breeds success, and word of this encourages hope, trust, and confidence in "the new". For instance, a demonstration conveys excitement and possibility; the First Branch Solar Hot Water Heating project comes to mind. It wasn’t impossible to get folks interested in trying them. Once done, there was tangible evidence that things could be changed, as well as some information about the steps necessary to making change happen in a community. Community learning curve, anyone?

How about a few tips on talking to folks about peak oil? Rice and Sawin encouraged us to increase our “feeling literacy” (my term), gaining a greater understanding of the role and function of feelings. Drawing upon research on the evolutionary function of feelings, they offered the following interpretations of five typical emotional responses to difficult news:

    * fear = pay attention; sense of a threat
    * anger = acting to protect
    * numbness = looking for a way to transcend a trap (someone who feels cornered; can also manifest as “I know all this already” or “you don’t know what you’re talking about”)
    * sadness = need to accept what cannot be changed, and must be left behind
    * excitement = engaged!

Learning to speak to others’ needs, not one’s own wants, begins by recognizing that feelings have deeper roots; progress in communication depends on relating to those underlying concerns. Understanding our own emotional reactions can also go a long way toward cultivating compassionate responses toward those we are trying to educate. None of us find peak oil pleasant to embrace; it's about as much fun as hugging a musky porcupine. It helps to keep this in mind.

Rice and Sawin also encouraged us to develop clear, rigorous communication -- without jargon! Too much information (particularly when couched in technical terms) invites analysis and debate (see point 3, above). Ordinary language can be quite compelling, and is less likely to invoke a defensive battle of wits.

Communicate about what works! Use real life, simple comparisons: "Peak Oil = The Law of the Bath Tub: if the outflow is greater than the inflow... it's simply not sustainable!" Or, "If it’s local and robust, it’s good for the community." This is not an invitation to avoid what’s happening; it's simply an opportunity to offer graspable metaphors, and to acknowledge and capitalize on seeds of change wherever possible. One can even point to the emerging interest in a more sustainable way of life among one’s neighbors to spark interest (Russell-Story might even suggest you frame it as a friendly competition!)

What about vision, and like minds? Orient your own work toward the vision you hold. The tension between vision and the current reality can be a source of despair, unless that vision becomes a beacon, a source of inspiration and motivation for on-going action and commitment. Invite co-creativity by introducing your vision to others -- this is what gives a vision legs to go! Offering your energy to others of “like vision” reduces that sense of isolation activists so often feel, given the disparity between the longed-for state and the current (and seemingly unchangeable) reality.

We were encouraged to live within the visions we create; imagine doing this! Rice and Sawin offered the concept of vision as an attracting force: our committment to it, and our living from within it, become components of how the change we want to see will eventually manifest in the world. I can think of many examples from within the Peak Oil Network where this has been the case, and continues to be. And, there's a lot to be gained through leading by example.

It was a full day, and in some ways, suggestive of the fact that many other such days would probably be helpful to peak oil activists. Each of the Networking topics could be a conference in itself -- there are no end of possibilities for helping one another along. It's safe to say that a few seeds have been planted; spring is just around the corner. Who knows what new endeavors will emerge from this fertile ground?

Oil Independent Oakland report is released
by David Room
Published on 21 Feb 2008 by A View from the Peak. Archived on Energy Bulletin, 21 Feb 2008.
The Oil Independent Oakland (OIO) By 2020 Task Force, composed of local, regional, and national experts including Richard Heinberg, developed a robust oil independence plan, consolidating measures from around the world that can be used locally to reduce oil consumption citywide. The action plan recommended bold initiatives to not only reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but to also establish Oakland as a national leader in the green economy and green jobs creation, while seeking to reduce Oakland's energy dependence.
Top Recommendations:
Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol, thereby committing the City of Oakland to reduce oil consumption in the entire city of Oakland by 3% per annum.
Reconfigure the city into multiple Urban Villages that co-locate residential, commercial, retail, and possibly light industrial. This involves a number of steps including updating the General Plan, designing review guidelines, and zoning.
Develop and implement a Public Transit Master Plan. This also involves an update to the General Plan and the task force strongly urges Oakland to consider a municipal streetcar system.
Enabling Recommendations:
Establish an Oil and Gas team charged with management of Oakland's oil independence activities.
Develop financing options including a local carbon tax and regional congestion charging.
Embark on a massive public outreach and education campaign.
Preparedness Recomendation:
Develop Contingency Plans for oil price and availability shocks.
[Read full report here.]

Peak oil science curriculum
by Gail E. Tverberg
Published on 24 Feb 2008 by The Oil Drum / Energy Bulletin. Archived on 24 Feb 2008.
Introduction
In this article, I provide a peak oil science curriculum suitable for introductory college science classes, advanced high school classes, and adult seminars. The material requires a little background in high school chemistry, but otherwise does not have any pre-requisites. There is sufficient material for a two to four session unit on peak oil.

The written material is divided into:
Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil
Part 2: Oil as a Liquid Fuel and Expected Peak Oil Impacts.

There are discussion questions at the ends of Part 1 and Part 2 and numerous links to other references.

Sample discussion questions:
1. In 1957, Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover gave a speech in which he talked about the expected peak of oil and gas production in the first part of the 21st century, and the likely decline of coal toward the middle of the 21st century. He also talked about the need to tell young people, and to start planning for the difficult transition that likely lay ahead. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2724 - Why didn't people take his advice?

2. In 2007, there was considerable publicity about the Tupi field in Brazil. According to newspaper articles, Tupi may transform Brazil into a major oil exporter. When you read further, you find that the oil field is nearly 200 miles off shore, and is at record depths. Furthermore, the oil is found beneath layers of rock and salt. ... In order to extract the oil, new technology will need to be developed to drill this deep and to overcome the problems of the unstable salt layer and of thermal shock. Also, some means of transporting the material extracted will be needed. Because natural gas will be included, the usual method would be a pipeline, but the distance will be a challenge. Therefore, the company is considering building a floating liquefied natural gas to liquid plant, so that tankers can transport both the oil and liquefied natural gas. The expected oil production from Tupi is large relative to recent discoveries, but not large relative to the amount of oil we need to discover each year. At full development, Tupi is expected to produce 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day. This is equivalent to 2.4% to 4.8% of the United States' current daily oil usage, or 0.6% to 1.2% of world usage. Just to offset declines in existing fields, we need to discover 5 to 9 fields the size of Tupi each year.
    a. What probability would you assign to this project actually succeeding?
    b. The company hopes to have initial production by 2013. Given the technology and infrastructure issues, how likely does this seem? Would you be surprised by setbacks?
    c. If this is the major discovery of the year, what does this tell you about other discoveries?

3. US oil consumption is about 25 barrels per year for each person in the United States. There are 42 gallons in a barrel, and each gallon contains on averages 34,800 (kilo) calories (gasoline has less, asphalt has more). How many (kilo) calories does this equate to? (Answer: 36,540,000)
    a) If we had food equivalent to this many calories, how many people could be fed with this many calories, assuming people, on average, eat 2,000 (kilo) calories a day? (Answer: 50)
    b) What does this relationship say about the likelihood that we will be able to grow enough crops to turn into biofuels to meet our current petroleum usage?

4. If oil rationing were imposed, and the amount of gasoline you could purchase were limited to half of what you are currently using today, how would that change your driving / commuting?

5. If you were the president of the United States, and needed to impose rationing, in what order would you rank the following in priority:
    a. Military
    b. Farmers
    c. Chemical feedstock use
    d. Transportation of food
    e. Mining of coal and uranium
    f. Transportation of non-food items
    g. Railroad and bus fuel
    h. Air travel
    i. Emergency services (ambulance, police)
    j. People with jobs
    k. People without jobs (retired, students)

6. There have been numerous governmental studies about peak oil. It is clear from public comments that Alan Greenspan is a believer in peak oil, as is former President Clinton. President Bush and Dick Cheney worked in the oil industry before their election. Do you think that President George W. Bush is aware of peak oil? If so, how do you think it has affected Bush's presidency? How long do you think that they have been aware of peak oil? Do you think it has had any impact on their policies? Why haven't they said anything about peak oil? http://search.doe.gov/search?output=xml_no_dtd&sort=date%3AD%3AL%3Ad1&ie (DOE Report)
http://www.peakoil.net/Articles2005/Westervelt_EnergyTrends__TN.pdf
http://www.straight.com/article/clinton-raises-alarm-about-oil-depletion (Clinton)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119763743685729349.html (Greenspan)
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf (DOE Report)

7. One of the reasons that there has been little said about peak oil is that economists keep saying that peak should not be no problem; in a free market economy, substitutes will be found.
    a) Name three substitutes for food.
    b) How does your answer to the substitutes for food question suggest that economic theory may be incorrect with respect to replacements for liquid fuels?

8. If biofuels, at least at this point, seem to have as many environmental problems as oil, would it make sense to concentrate our efforts on enhanced oil recovery? How about coal to liquid?

World Without Oil - Use it in the Classroom
from Gala Teah at World Without Oil
Introduction:
In May 2007, over 1,800 people combined imagination with insight to create World Without Oil (WWO), a realistic simulation of the first 32 weeks of a global oil shortage chronicled in 1,500 personal blog posts, videos, images and voicemails. Via these lesson plans, high school teachers can use this collaborative grassroots simulation to engage students with questions about energy use, sustainability, the role energy plays in our economy, culture, worldview and history, and many others.

World Without Oil was an alternate reality game – when submitting their stories, its players pretended the oil crisis was really happening. We encourage teachers to do the same: to get "in game" and act to make the crisis seem real. Each day your students will immerse themselves in an exploration of a World Without Oil, and prepare their own "in-game" stories that they can contribute to the WWO online archive.

We've got the first WWO lesson plans up on the new site, with the rest to follow in the next couple weeks. Comments welcome!

Lessons:
The ten lessons are modular – teachers may use them all or select a subset to fit a particular class agenda or schedule. The first few lessions have been developed; more to come soon.

Subjects and Methods:
The WWO lesson plans are cross-disciplinary and relate to American History, World History, Current Events, Economics, Government, Humanities, and English. Methods include inquiry-based learning, narrative-driven learning, collaborative learning, multimedia content creation, and media literacy. Technology requirements and relation to standards are listed. Outcome: an in-depth understanding of the role that energy has played in our economy, culture, policy and identity, its connections to our lifestyle and affluence, and ways to evaluate its role in our future.

Vermont Peak Oil Network Newsletter