"Can I have a cookie?"  "No, not now; after dinner."  "Absolutely impossible..."

"Can we go to the park?"  "When your brother wakes up from his nap."  "Absolutely impossible..."

How these two things - waiting and impossibility – came to be intertwined in my young mind I'll never know.  It does seem very much a part of our human nature (and some say even our biochemistry) to become impatient with a lack of immediate gratification, rather than reasoning the situation out. In the realm of information, this leads to wanting to see the results, at least the facts, right now, concrete and before our eyes in a manner so real as to be virtually indisputable.  This insistence, this discomfort with the intangible (as well as with the not-quite-tangible-enough), is perhaps what renders us so impervious to the looming dangers of peak oil.

I find myself increasingly engaged in conversations that show how difficult it is to grasp consequences that do not seem to be immediately upon us, particularly when so many other dire situations clamor for attention.  Even congress critters complain about the din. Folks concerned with climate change (even respected lecturers on environmental issues) tend to dismiss the ramifications of oil depletion, or at best give them a back seat to the very real – and perhaps more tangible – threat of global heating.  Yet the way that we address the one will ultimately affect the other.  We need to develop more holistic methods for assessing the situation we are in, a situation which, when more thoroughly examined, reveals the interrelationship between environment, economics, geo-politics, society, energy dependency, and choice.  We need to move beyond "seeing is believing."  We need to take the long view.

In the seminal works of authors such as Donnella Meadows (et al), William Catton, and more recently Tom Wessels, we are reminded that global systems are fraught, by their very nature, with long delays and complex feedback mechanisms; they are so complex and subtle that trends within those systems can go unnoticed until, unfortunately, it is too late to change the trajectory of the movement underway.  Given that many of these movements are observable only over a long period of time - far greater than the typical American attention span - it has proven difficult to increase the level of awareness needed to bring about useful and timely interventions.  Even as we go to press with this issue of the VPON News, Global Warming is having its “Day in Court”, amidst cries from quarters where it is still considered to be a hoax.  

In an effort to help us understand the role of cheap energy in the development of industrial society and its impact on global, political, environmental and social systems, Richard Heinberg has offered The Party’s Over. This work not only presents us with a long view of the repercussions of energy acquisition and control by humans; it also makes clear that unless humans (particularly those in industrialized or industrializing societies) curb their energy consumption, environmental degradation and social catastrophe is in the cards for us all.  Already, our demand for energy consumption at today’s levels, nevermind tomorrow's, is putting a strain on the environment and economies of people in third world countries, whose lands are increasingly being exploited to either supply our continual demand for cheap energy (including biofuels), or to help industrialized nations offset carbon emissions through a questionable system of carbon trading (see Carbon Trading: A Critical Conversation on Climate Change, Privatisation and Power)

Admittedly, local and national representatives are more likely to be moved to action by negative impacts felt by constituents closer to home; however, the degradation of the natural, cultural, and economic landscapes of peoples around the world will eventually come back to haunt us.  In our own country, the likelihood that we will try to deal with anticipated shortages of oil and natural gas by burning (or liquifying) more coal raises new threats to the environment; how can we say that peak oil is not as important as global warming? More food for thought: it is now estimated that if Iowa were to bring all of its planned ethanol-producing plants on-line, it would have to import corn; the pressure between traditional uses of corn and the demand to produce ethanol may, for the first time, put Iowa in a position of being a “corn importer!”  The meat industry, dependent on corn and other grains for livestock, is growing a tad concerned.  (And, this raises the question of how willing we might be to change our diets, or at least the diets of our livestock, but that is another story...)

Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg.  A melting one at that.  How we choose to address peak oil will very much impact global warming.  Most people in peak oil-aware circles know this. That is why we are so committed to educating ourselves, other citizens and lawmakers now, while there may still be time to mitigate the environmental, social, and economic impacts of an energy-constrained future.  All this in a society that depends completely on cheap energy for its "non-negotiable way of life".  Red flags could not be raised any higher here, folks.

The answer to our problems lies not in creating the most diverse energy portfolio we can to maintain our energy-intensive lifestyles, although a diverse portfolio of renewables will certainly go a long way toward mitigating the nasty consequences of oil and natural gas depletion in the home heating and electrical energy sectors.  We need to reduce our energy demands, through elimination of wasteful energy uses (how many plastic toys or exotic, out-of-season fruits do we need?) - this requires cultural change.  We need to increase energy conservation as well as improve energy efficiency in every sector: agriculture, transportation, land use and "growth center" planning as well as business and residential heating and electrical needs.  We need legislation at the state and national levels that rewards energy efficiency, sustainable farming and natural resource management, localized economies, and more.  Individually, we need to reduce the distance between our desires and our needs, and recognize the consequences of the actions we take to fulfill them.  We need to get real.  

Taking the long view means considering, to the best of our ability, the ramifications of what we do or do not do today, on the state of our lives, and the world of tomorrow.  It means learning to think holistically about consequences, becoming wary of grasping at straws as much as we are wary of foot-dragging.  We need to think fully about the impact of developing biofuels in Vermont, and we need to consider what it will mean not to develop them.  We’ll have to ask ourselves and our legislators to ponder what will happen if we put off investing in renewables like wind or micro-hydro in hopes that the market will “straighten out” the energy mess. We will need to assess the value of every innovation in light of its sustainability, and identify, as much as possible, the shores against which each ripple will eventually come to rest.

In this edition of the VPON Monthly News and Views, you’ll find an interview with Netaka White of Vermont Biofuels, who discusses the importance of on-farm biofuel production and retaining community-scale; you'll see some creative thinking from the Greensboro Energy Task Force on putting local waterways to work.  Front Porch Forum offers a new way to network neighborhoods, and reduce petroleum use.  Richard Heinberg’s “Fifty Million Farmers” prepares us to look at Vermonter Robert Timmons’ report on "Measuring and Understanding Local Foods" in Vermont; both authors raise important questions.  All over Vermont, citizens are grappling with the dual challenges of climate change and an energy-constrained future; the innovation is extraordinary, and the focus on human scale soultions a real tribute to these Vermonters’ appreciation of community.  We have seen and heard enough; we know that these threats exist, even if the ultimate results are not yet in front of us.  The Vermont version of taking the long view considers the state of the world and brings us home again, inviting us to plan, act and live locally and responsibly, here and now, with an eye toward the future we want for our children.  Absolutely necessary, and possible as well.

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• Senator Jeffords
• Speaker Gaye Symington
• Avram Patt and WEC
• Jeffery Wolfe of groSolar