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Natural Gas
Supplies
The rate of "production" of natural gas (NG) in the
Importation of NG from overseas is difficult and expensive: it requires
cooling
the gas to some 200 degrees below zero to turn it into Liquified
Natural Gas
(LNG, not to be confused with LPG, aka propane), and transporting it in
ships
that keep it that cold (using a significant portion of the NG as
refrigeration
fuel on the way). There are only a handful of facilities on this
continent for re-gassification of LNG, and local opposition to the
building of
such facilities is fierce, in part due to worries that an unloading LNG
ship is
a target for terrorists. There is also a very tight world market
for
LNG. Thus, we cannot expect to import enough NG to cover the
coming
decline in domestic (and Canadian) production. Lower supply means
higher
prices. How much higher? That depends on the flexibility of
demand.
In North America natural gas is, or was, widely used for five main
purposes:
(1) Heating of buildings
(2) Generation of electricity
(3) Production of ammonia fertilizer
(4) Production of many types of plastics
(5) Conversion of Alberta's "tar sands" into oil
In the wake of the major increases in the price of NG in recent years,
the two
uses that are portable: production of fertilizer and plastics, have
largely
picked up and moved overseas to where NG is still abundant, e.g., parts
of the
Middle East. (Yes, that means that now our agriculture, too,
depends on
imports from the
Electricity is generated from a variety of energy sources. The
biggest
source of baseload power in the
As explained in the background
documents for the
Consequences
for
The consequences for the future of electricity in
As prices will be much higher than today, we will have more motivation
to
conserve. Most households can easily use far less electricity
than they
use today, without much loss of comfort and utility. Fluorescent
bulbs,
front loading washing machines, and the latest energy-saving
refrigerators make
a big difference. Turning lights (and TVs) off when leaving a
room is not
onerous. Lighting the outdoors will go out of fashion.
Drying
clothes on a line will come back into fashion. Air conditioning
will be
recognized as a luxury we can do without most of the time (judicious
tree
plantings can provide adequate cooling for most
And, given a much higher price for electricity from conventional
sources, some
new sources will be able to join the market, despite their higher
inherent
costs. This includes wind power from turbines in locations that
are not
optimal, i.e., not on the highest ridges. (Turbines in the best
locations
are already competitive.) Since the available prime ridges are
limited,
we will have to build turbines in lesser spots anyway in order to
generate
enough power. Might as well start building there now, rather than
arguing
over the highest ridges while building nothing. (And locating the
turbines closer to the consumers saves on transmission costs.)
Also
competitive will be small, local hydropower installations, and
wood-fired
co-generation plants.
Time to Power Smart!
An editorial in the BFP (What's
the alternative to Vermont Yankee?) said: "Conservation and
efficiency efforts are insufficient to reduce
the state's energy demand by a third within five years. Nor can