The
Peak Oil Quiz
by Carl Etnier
What do your representatives know about peak oil? Two of us in the
Greater East Montpelier Peak Oil Group (GEMPOG) hope they’ll
know
more before the election.
Candidates for elected office are routinely besieged with
questionnaires from interest organizations who want to know their views
on issues. We are developing a questionnaire for candidates for
state-wide office and for the Vermont senate and house. The
questionnaire contains some opinion questions, a number of questions
are aimed strictly at making sure the basic terms of the debate are
understood. Here are some of the questions I like to answer in my basic
presentation on peak oil.
Many people, even at places like SolarFest and on Bill
McKibben’s
march to stabilize climate change, still don’t know that
"peak oil" refers
to the point at which world oil production reaches its maximum and
begins to decline. It means running out of cheap oil—which
has
formed the basis of our industrial economy.
And how many people know what
"relocalize"
means?
Yet, in the Vermont Peak Oil Network, most of are working on strategies
to bring production of food, energy, and essential materials and
products closer to home. We want relocalized production
because,
when energy is scarce and expensive, local options may be the only
options available.
When I introduce people to the concept of peak oil, I try to increase
credibility by emphasizing where peaks have already been experienced.
For example, US oil production peaked in 1971, and 54 of the
world’s largest 65 oil-producing countries have
already
passed
their peak oil production.
I think it is also useful to point out the
increasing
dependence of the US on imported oil (PDF warning).
When I was a
high school debater discussing energy alternatives in 1978, the US
imported 42% of the oil it used. In 1998, the percentage exceeded 50%
for the first time, and by 2005, 60% of oil used in the US was
imported. The amounts imported have increased during that same time
from 8 million barrels per day to over 12 million barrels per day (PDF
warning).
Of course, I always face questions about when world oil production is
to peak. I tell people that some people believe it peaked last year,
and we won’t know for a while whether that was true. Most
others
seem to believe it will peak within the next 5-15 years. The
peer-reviewed poster I carry around (from
http://www.oilposter.org)
projects
2010 as the peak year, a date also featured in Energy
Bulletin’s
Peak
Oil Primer.
Finally, I like to bank the credibility of the US Department of Energy
(DoE) and refer to the so-called “Hirsch Report” of
2005,
“
Peaking
of World Oil Production:
Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk
Management.” I emphasize that this team of mainstream
resource
economists commissioned by the DoE crunched the numbers and concluded
that it would take 20 years of huge investments to avoid severe
economic dislocations—and that many in the oil industry think
that peak oil is less than 20 years away.
All this information is important for every citizen to know, but
especially for our leaders. I hope that they will be well informed by
the beginning of the next legislative session. We expect to send out
our questionnaire at the end of the first week in October. Please
contact your candidates and ask them to take the Peak Oil Quiz!
_______________________________________________________________
Carl Etnier is a
member of the Greater East Montpelier Peak Oil Group. He can
be
reached at: carl (at)
etnier.net
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